Sunday, March 9, 2008

Analysis (part 1)

My analysis in most cases will not include either the Inner City campus or the Bannatyne campus. Here's why:
  1. Student life on those two campuses is something I know very little about. I'm not going to pretend to be able to understand how they vote.
  2. Here are the total vote numbers from those two campuses:
    • Inner-city: 0 votes (at a cost of $216 to run the poll);
    • Bannatyne campus: 9 votes (at a cost of $648, or $72 per vote).

Who came to vote?

I find this very interesting. Just a few polls account for a very large majority of the voting population.

Poll Turnout %age
Univ. Centre (2 polls) 896 40.7%
Fletcher Argue (Arts, etc.) 496 22.5%
Armes (Science) 294 13.4%
Pembina Hall (Tache/Speechly Res.) 231 10.5%
Drake (Management) 98 4.5%
Frank Kennedy 83 3.8%
University College (Residence, Law) 55 2.5%
Agriculture 39 1.8%
Bannatyne (Medicine, Dentistry) 9 0.4%
Inner-City (Social Work)
0
0%

Polls at University Centre and Fletcher Argue alone account for over 63% of turnout. Add Armes and Pembina Hall, and you account for 87.1% of all voters. Especially remarkable is the anaemic turnout at Bannatyne and the Inner-City campus

Where did the Regressive Conservatives draw their support?

This slate was something of a wild card. I speculated earlier that they might poll well in management, but not much better elsewhere.

Poll RC (Pres)
Drake (Management) 16.33%
Agriculture 12.82%
University College (Residence, Law) 12.73%
University Centre (2 polls) 11.61%
Frank Kennedy 10.84%
Armes (Science) 7.82%
Fletcher Argue (Arts, etc.) 6.25%
Pembina Hall (Tache/Speechly Res.) 3.03%


Poll RC (VPSS)
Agriculture 20.51%
Drake (Management) 20.20%
University College (Residence, Law) 10.91%
University Centre (2 polls) 9.81%
Frank Kennedy 9.52%
Fl. Arg (Arts, etc.)
8.06%
Armes (Science) 7.51%
Pembina Hall (Tache/Speechly Res.) 1.29%

So in this regard, I was on the money. Management (and the historically right-leaning Aggies) came out to support the Regressives.

It's important to note that they did better in Management and Agriculture than they did elsewhere, but they were still beaten by the other two slates by significant margins. In economics terms, the Regressives find their comparative advantage at these polling stations. Also of note, these two polls accounted for only 6.3% of total turnout. Even had they won every vote at these stations, they only would have gained a hundred ballots or so.

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