Final analysis and predictions

The campaign period is just about over, so it's time to reflect and make some ridiculous predictions. This blog strictly follows the Gregg Easterbrook/TMQ^TM prediction policy: All predictions wrong or your money back!

Students United

In my opinion, this slate is the clear front-runner. Here's why they've been able to pull away:

• They are winning the poster war in design, number, and coverage
  
• Their candidates are missing classes and are constantly present in University Centre and the Arts Complex
  
• They have an army of volunteers
  
• Their candidates draw support from a swath of different faculties.
  
• One of their candidates, Sid Rashid, is a long-time student at a campus residence, and residence students vote in droves.
• They are the only slate in support of the tuition freeze, while the anti-freeze vote will be split between the other two slates.
  
• They are the candidates of the establishment, even if they're only being supported informally.

On the downside, there's some question of the readiness of their presidential candidate given that he is a University 1 student. Because voter turnout is higher among older students than among younger ones, and older students are more likely to see this as a problem than younger ones, they'll probably lose a few votes over this. But from a big picture perspective, I would be very surprised to see them lose this election. Expect to see them do well in all residences, Arts, Science, Music, Kinesiology and Recreation Management, and Social Work.

Projected vote: 55%

Clean Slate

Clean Slate represents the primary opposition to Students United. They're the only other slate running five candidates, and their posters and website look have a professional look. They've been hampered by an apparent lack of volunteers, especially knowledgeable ones. Their posters went up late and their leaflets were confiscated after a complaint was successfully lodged against them. They are also attending class while campaigning and so have not been as present in the hallways as Students United.

They should be looking for votes from faculties that are historically critical of CFS and candidates that reflect their policies, but this will be challenging given that four of their five candidates are from the Faculty of Arts, which traditionally swings to the left. Expect support from Engineering and Management, but not much else.

Projected vote: 25%

Regressive Conservatives

This slate is something of a wild card. They're not running a full team, they have few volunteers, they're working with a shortened campaign period, their poster and website are very amateurish, and they're running what is perceived to be a right-wing campaign on campus. I mean, It's one thing to run a right-leaning campaign relative to the other slates, but they're selling themselves as Republican-Party-right-wing on a Canadian campus.

But they have eye-catching posters, and what their supporters lack in numbers, they more than make up in enthusiasm and dedication.

You'll note that my description of their campaign has that it is perceived as right-wing. In fact, their policies are better descibed as libertarianism (think Ron Paul) than, say, the Conservative Party. For sake of comparison, when current Conservative MP Steven Fletcher was UMSU President, he did not pledge to slash UMSU's budget by withholding funding from student groups. He reached out to select groups that would support him, and it didn't hurt to have Engineering turn out in droves.

Because of their blatant antagonism towards the people that are likely to vote, I can't see them doing well amongst anyone but their most die-hard supporters. They might do well with management. Maybe.

Projected vote: 20%

Final Thoughts

If you support one of the above slates that I've written off, then get out there and prove me wrong! Don't stay away from the polls because your team appears to be doing poorly. Elections frequently have surprise endings.

Or, I could be completely off in my predictions; this could be a very close race decided by just a few dozen people in which individual votes make a huge difference.